CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2020-07-05T17:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-07-05T17:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/15629/-1
CME Note: The start time of the CME was changed as seen on SOHO LASCO. There were two CMEs, an earlier one headed towards STA that overlaps with this event that was seen around 2020-07-05T14:24Z. CME arrival date/time is not certain as there are two potential flux ropes. From Lan Jian First CME short and weak, arrived at around 20:45 UT on July 8. Another flux rope seen in the second half day of July 9, with slightly stronger peak magnetic field strength around 15:50UT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-07-09T15:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-07-09T13:37Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:

% Compiled module: EAM_V2.
******************************************************************************
Most pr. speed = 366.0 km/s 
u_r = 417.4 km/s
Acceleration:      0.116302
Duration in seconds:        344227.79
Duration in days:        3.9841180
t2 is negative
**************************************************************************************
Acceleration of the CME:   0.12 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  457.4 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 09/07/2020 Time: 13:37 UT

Lead Time: 55.83 hour(s)
Difference: 2.22 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2020-07-07T08:00Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy